HCMC, March 3, 2024 – The GBA held its first Business Meeting of the year, titled “Vietnam’s Economic Future – Opportunities and Challenges”, attracting 80 attendees. The session, led by GBA Chairman Mr. Alexander Ziehe, featured three keynote speakers:
- Dr. Du Tran – Senior Partner – EY Consulting Vietnam
- Dr. Jonathan London – Senior International Economist – UNDP Vietnam
- Mr. Suan Teck Kin, CFA – Head of Research, Executive Director – UOB Group
During the event we brought together these experts with industry leaders of our community to decode the complex economic outlook of Vietnam. Business strategies need to align with macroeconomic trends, leveraging the opportunities of Vietnam and Southeast Asia to grow due to infrastructure needs, buying power and trade integration, but also by observing challenges in global trade shifts to limit risks. Discussions delved into the challenges and opportunities presented by regional and international relations, and the scenarios Vietnam may encounter in the coming years and decades of economic development.
Key Opportunities:
– Vietnam’s economic outlook is promising, with significant improvements in its business environment since 2003 and the potential to escape the middle-income trap. The country is expected to remain a top destination for FDI, with inflows from China increasing by almost 80% in 2023.
– Vietnam’s GDP growth was 7.1% in 2024, and the government aims for double-digit growth through 2045. The country’s GDP per capita growth is the fastest in ASEAN-5, with 48 million Vietnamese expected to have an income over $20 per day by 2030, surpassing Thailand, the Philippines, and Malaysia.
– Vietnam is still cautiously investing in infrastructure and has potential for further spendings based on a healthy public debt quota, together with the rising consumer power, both areas offer high growth potentials.
Key challenges:
– High reliance on trade and the dependence on few specific markets, requires further diversification of trade partnerships.
– Demographics are changing by birth rate decline, which require changes in talent development and an increased economic efficiency.
– Financial market risks and high level of bureaucracy prevail with rising demand for reforms to improve the business environment significantly.
These insights underscore Vietnam’s promising economic outlook while recognizing the challenges ahead. Attendees gained a clear understanding of these trends and strategized their impact on businesses in Vietnam. The session encouraged forward-thinking dialogue, helping companies to stay resilient in this fast changing environment.
The GBA extends heartfelt thanks to the keynote speakers and all participants for their highly valuable insights, which greatly contributed to the event’s success.
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